Deutsche Bank’s new report, “The Peak Oil Market” talks of a Peak oil scenario causes by underinvestment by the oil industry in finding new supplies. This will send oil to $175 a barrel by 2016—and will simultaneously put the final nail in oil’s coffin and send prices plummeting back to $70 by 2030.
That’s because of a global peak in oil demand. Deutsche Bank notes: US demand is the key. It is the last market-priced, oil inefficient, major oil consumer. We believe Obama’s environmental agenda, the bankruptcy of the US auto industry, the war in Iraq, and global oil supply challenges have dovetailed to spell the end of the oil era.
Deutsche Bank expects the electric car to become a truly “disruptive technology” which takes off around the world, sending demand for gasoline into an “inexorable and accelerating decline.”
Won’t cheaper oil in the future just lead to a revival in oil demand? No. Says the bank: Just as the explosion of digital cameras made the cost of film irrelevant, the growth of electric cars will make the price of oil (and gasoline) all but irrelevant for transportation.
Meanwhile ‘The Global Peak Oil Survey 2009’, carried out by the UK focused peak oil group Powerswitch suggests the effects of peak oil suggested will be wide ranging, with increases in crime, war and nationalism, and decreases in urban working, health and global population levels. A strong concern about climate change exists but the view is that peak oil will have much more of an impact on society over the next 25 years. But at the individual level, there is optimism.
The initial findings can be read at http://tinyurl.com/gpos2009-results-page, the raw data of the results have also been made available on the PowerSwitch website, www.powerswitch.org.uk.
Resource wars and rising nationalism. Governments unprepared. A reverse migration from cities. What do you think will be the consequences?
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