Forget Peak oil that refers to peaking of oil supply, now a new study suggests that global oil demand will peak before 2020. With participation of some of the world's leading energy and technology companies and organizations, the research challenged the concept that "Peak Oil" will be a supply side phenomenon and predicts that the demand for oil may well peak before 2020 and then fall back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035. It underlies a general underestimation of the future impact of government policies to improve fuel efficiency and promote alternatives to oil, according to the study.
The study findings suggest that there is a strong chance of oil demand reaching its peak before 2020, at no more than about 4 percent above 2010 levels, before falling into a long-term decline trend, with demand in 2035 back down to some 3 percent below 2010 levels.
The study predicts significant changes in future demand patterns, strongly influenced by global energy security policies, the technology change that they promote, and demographics. Evolutionary changes in automotive technology is predicted to bring revolutionary changes in fuel demand. The increasing disparity of demand between fuel types, diesel volumes are buoyed by heavy duty transportation use while gasoline declines due to increasing powertrain efficiencies and higher pump blends of bio-ethanol.
The study also predicts improved supply prospects for natural gas likely to lead to decoupling of oil and gas market.
That sure is a welcome trend if we can move with the reality of fossil fuels running out. But there are the cynics who do not believe any significant improvisation on vehicle efficiencies nor that biofuels will make any big impact. Time will tell.
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