Adding up in effect

An incremental approach to closing the gap between where emissions are and where they need to be may be easier and more successful. Without any change in greenhouse gas emissions, the world will be creating 12 more gigatons of carbon dioxide a year than we should be in order to prevent worst-case global warming. In order to close that gap, the research team sought to identify areas that share four characteristics: like existing traction, other benefits, leaders and that the action can achieve at least a reduction of one half billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2020.

The researchers from Germany and Netherlands identified 21 initiatives that meet the four above characteristics. The combined impact of bringing those initiatives to scale, as outlined in the graph, brings CO2 output to near the target range of 44 gigatons a year, reducing output almost the full 12 gigatons it would take to do so.

In essence, being part of a larger coalition that has the potential to completely bridge the entire emissions gap will make it much more attractive to participate in and take action than individual spurts. What is required is a coalition that together provides leadership in bridging the gap.

The team’s calculation shows that the initiatives have in sum substantial potential to bridge the emissions gap, going beyond what governments have pledged. The combined effect of the initiatives can be quite substantial: a reduction of roughly 10 Gt CO₂e below business as usual by 2020, plus the effect of enhanced reductions in air-pollutant emissions. This can be compared to the gap of around 12 Gt CO₂e between business as usual and what would be necessary for the 2 °C limit.

 A coalition of progressive governments and producers could remove barriers to solar PVs by introducing good grid access and net metering rules, paving the way to add another 1,600 GW by 2020 (growth consistent with recent years). Impact in 2020: up to 1.4 Gt CO₂e. The Global Wind Energy Council could foster the global introduction of arrangements that lead to risk reduction for investments in wind energy, with, for example, grid access and guarantees. This could lead to an installation of 1,070 GW by 2020, which is 650 GW over a reference scenario. Impact in 2020: up to 1.2 Gt CO₂e. The UN Secretary General's Sustainable Energy for All Initiative could ensure that all people without access to electricity (1.4 bn) get access through low-emission options. Impact in 2020: up to 0.4 Gt CO₂e. The International Energy Agency could work with countries to phase-out half of all fossil-fuel subsidies. Impact in 2020: up to 0.9 Gt CO₂e.  So on.

For more, read.