Future technology

So, are electric vehicles going to be as widely feasible as we would like it to be?Nearly every major automobile manufacturer in the world appears ready to market some flavor of plug-in vehicle with in the next few years. So the odds are piled high for sure.

A recent study concluded that together these manufacturers have committed to producing some 840,000 electric vehicles by 2013. The demand for lithium-ion automobile batteries is projected to increase from 2.4 gigawatt hours (GWh) this year to 18 GWh by 2013 - a seven fold increase. The rapid increase in lithium-ion battery production -- 20 new plants are under construction -- is expected to drive the cost of these batteries down from $800-1000/kWh today to the vicinity of $350 by the end of the decade.

Good news. But, where is the research on batteries heading? On small short-term batteries or bulky long-term ones?

Tom Whipple writes in Energy Bulletin, quoting a study by Carnegie-Mellon that for the immediate future electric cars with small battery packs and limited electric range offer more benefits to society than larger packs that attempt to substitute completely for conventional fuels.

Not only do the smaller shorter range battery packs such as those found in conventional hybrids or the newer plug-in electrics cost far less, they also weigh much less. Large electrical batteries become a lot more dead weight that has to be carried around after discharged than do smaller batteries. In the long run cheaper, long-lived, longer range batteries will of course prove superior. But it will take time for research to fructify and allow scalability.

Meanwhile, another major laboratory announced that its technology could lead to electric cars with a 300 mile range, while another says its titanium dioxide microspheres will allow batteries to be charged to 50 percent of capacity in 6 minutes.

Work is underway to standardize wireless recharging systems that would eliminate the need to actually plug-in a vehicle to recharge its batteries. Simply parking an appropriately equipped vehicle in an appropriately equipped parking space would allow the recharging of the batteries to take place! fancy and more about comfort than going green!

Cynics still insist that research apart, such technology will be too costly for 7 billion to afford anyway. Well, even if 3 billion could, that would be a welcome relief for the environment, right?

Vehicles cross 1 billion!

Hold your breath (yes, thanks to the smog!)according to the auto trade journal Ward's, there are now over one billion cars, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks on roads around the world, up from 980 million at the end of 2009.

The U.S. is still has the biggest population of cars and trucks -- one for every 1.3 people in the country. But the American fleet is not growing much, only about 1 percent a year. The explosion in automobile deployments is coming from China, where registrations grew by 27.5 percent, bringing the country's vehicle population to 78 million.

That increase was more than half of the total global expansion, according to Ward'. India's vehicle population underwent the second-largest growth rate, up 8.9 percent to 20.8 million units, compared with 19.1 million in 2009.

According to the International Transport Forum the global vehicle fleet could reach 2.5 billion by 2050. No doubt those cars and trucks will be much more efficient than today's vehicles, especially with China and America setting tighter fuel standards. And many of them will be electric-drive vehicles. But another doubling of the global market -- even with an increase in efficiency -- means massive increases in greenhouse-gas emissions.

Good for auto industyr, not so for the planet!