Thinking big, thinking new

The time for green has arrived. If in Scotland it is tidal power that will be harnessed to provide 60 MW to power 40,000 homes by 2011, in the Dutch city of Heerlen the first geothermal power station went operational two days ago. The plant circulates water from its mines to heat and cool 350 homes and in the process helps save 50 percent carbon emissions as would have been emitted from a conventional power station. Elsewhere, the GSM association of mobile phone companies has a programme to power 118,000 base stations with renewable energy that will save 600 million gallons of diesel every year.

Google has just taken what could be a giant leap for the planet with its ‘clean energy 2030’ proposal to reduce US dependence on fossil fuels. The grandiose plan hopes to reduce fossil fuel-based electrical generation by 88%, transportation oil consumption by 38%, foreign oil imports by 33% and in the process cut carbon emissions from electric sector by 95 percent, 38 in personal vehicle sector and overall US emissions by 48 percent.

To appreciate all this, a quick look at some projections.

In the IEO 2008 projections, total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 50 percent from 2005 to 2030. The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the non-OECD economies. Notching it a bit higher is a US study that predicts a growth of 54 percent over the next two decades.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's long-term forecast for the year 2025 projects the strongest growth in energy use from developing countries, especially China and India, where buoyant economies will boost demand. Energy use in developing countries is forecast to soar by 91 percent over the next two decades, while rising 33 percent in industrialized nations.

Where will this energy come from? The oil peak theory that is gaining wide acceptance already sees the beginning of the drop in the curve. Coal reserves will hardly last a few decades if we continue with the current merry trend of burning coal.

Does it mean it is time to scrimp and save? To switch off the lights and take long walks? Not immediately, at least!

Some respite comes from a McKinsey research which shows that the growth of worldwide energy demand can be cut in half or more over the next 15 years, without reducing either the benefits that end users enjoy or economic growth. The key, as the authors see it, is a concerted global effort to boost energy productivity. Or getting more energy out of a litre or tonne of fuel than we have been obtaining.

But that only addresses the demand side, and temporarily. There is the other serious side – of growing emissions. To keep temperature rise at 2 deg C we have to reduce emissions by 2050 to 90 percent of what they are today. But Kyoto and IPCC findings notwithstanding, the world continues to spew greenhouse gases at growing rates!

A recent study by the Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory shows that despite all the sound and noise about climate change, annual carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and manufacturing cement have grown 38 percent since 1992, from 6.1 billion tons of carbon to 8.5 billion tons in 2007.

The source of emissions has shifted dramatically as energy use has been growing slowly in many developed countries but more quickly in some developing countries, most notably in rapidly developing Asian countries such as China and India. These are countries that are in no mood to give up on their high-energy trajectories, perceived as necessary for realizing growth targets.

That is where renewables could play a big role. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report assumes significance. It estimates that nearly 50% of global electricity supplies will have to come from renewable energy sources if we want to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 in order to minimise significant and irreversible climate change impacts.

This goal can be achieved only if backed by matching policies that give substantial incentives for adoption and impose taxes on fossil fuel use, rather than subsidizing. Increasing tax for high carbon real estate would release a large amount. Increasing carbon efficiency of existing assets like infrastructure, supply chain goods like vehicles, PCs, TVs, etc makes another big leap. Equally important would be for businesses to take part and set targets at work for reducing carbon footprints. All this can bring down consumption by 25 percent by 2020, and a subsequent 27 percent drop in carbon emissions according to McKinsey.

The IEA study found widespread non-economic barriers to the deployment of renewable energy, including administrative hurdles, obstacles to electricity grid access and a lack of information and training. It strongly recommended that these should be removed.

The IEA also stressed the need for a predictable and transparent support framework to attract investment in renewable energy and for “transitional incentives”, decreasing over time, to foster technological innovation.

In India, the power ministry had, way back in 2001, predicted that end-use efficiency and demand side management can save the country 25,000 MW. Basically these would involve energy conservation measures, energy efficiency, load shifting and peak shaving.

However, not much has been done. Loud voices heard are still all about increasing supply, and by using the coal route. The building code was made mandatory for commercial buildings while leaving out government buildings! A draft on trading of energy efficiency certificates is on the cards. But RPOs are still not a part of many of the SEBs.

Costs have inhibited the growth of RE sector in India. That again has been due to poor incentives for manufacture, as also supply constraints in resources and a lack of spur to R&D.

All that could be dealt with, perhaps, if someone like Google could take the mantle here in India and set a high-reaching target. It will not be easy but an inspiring leader could make aiming for the sky seem a child’s play.

Even Google’s Clean Energy 2030 proposal has vast scope for improvement. For one, is it practical to phase out all fossil fuels? Some calculations made by commentators show that requirements to do this using wind energy alone would take over 100 years. Not to forget the costs for the 2030 plan which hover around $4.5 trillion, even if potential savings over time will be over $1 trillion! It has once again triggered debate over nuclear versus wind and solar. Suggestions for small nuclear plants situated near consumers and allow heat generated to be used, and Google’s own tie-up with GE to smarten up transmission grids make for enlightening news.

As always, there are the lobbies visible for wind, solar or nuclear. Things are sure to get confusing as others pitch in.

But it will still be a victory for Google, to have initiated a large public debate on a crucial area. When a well-known name like Google is associated with such a venture, people are bound to look up and make contributions to the debate. Whether anything comes out of it or not, the bigger success will be if Google can bring in a culture of innovative thinking and energy awareness.

Google’s envisioning of a smart grid comes as a trend-setting example in this. It talks of: ‘‘We all receive an electricity bill once a month that encourages little except prompt payment. What if, instead, we had access to real-time information about home energy use? What if our flat screen TVs, electronic equipment, lights and appliances were programmed to automatically adjust to save money and cut energy use? What if we could push a button and switch the source of our homes' electricity from fossil fuels to renewable energy? What if the car sitting in our garage ran on electricity – the equivalent of $1 per gallon gasoline – and was programmed to charge at night when electricity is cheapest?’

Can we set a Vision for India that unleashes such futuristic thinking? Anyone ready?