Monday, August 31, 2009

Will they, won't they... save themselves

Western nations are trying to use India's "profligate reproductive behaviour" to force Delhi to accept legally binding emission reduction targets, India's environment minister noted. Jairam Ramesh’s speech comes as the 100 day countdown begins to the UN climate change summit in Copenhagen, which will agree on a successor to the Kyoto agreement, due to expire in 2012.

India's population of over 1 billion means that while it is the world's fifth biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, its per capita emissions are just one-twentieth of the United States. However, its population is rising quickly and the United Nations predicts India will have 1.7 billion people by 2050 – while China will by then have a population of 1.4 billion.

The minister minced no words when he said, "For us this is about survival. We need to put electricity into people's homes and do it cleanly. You in the west need to live with only one car rather than three. For you it is about luxury. For us, survival."

The Indian government – along with 37 other developing nations – has argued that rich nations such as the US should set a goal of cutting emissions by 40% from 1990 levels by 2020. As proof of concept that reductions can be made. Whether you believe population or consumption is the problem, there is no doubt that there is a big problem!

When every (rich) country is in violation of the Kyoto protocol obligation, to ask China and India to take on legal targets smacks of hypocrisy… ” Which is true...

...but consider what happens if India’s per capita emissions rise by a factor of 3.5 and the population increases by 70% from now until 2050, as projected. This would make its current CO2 emissions from energy use 1,293 million metric tons/year in 2006 grow to roughly 7,700 million metric tons/year. (China’s 2006 emissions were 6,017 million metric tons, and the US’ were 5,902.)

Add to that China’s restricting their emissions only to the point where they equal their 2005 emissions in 2050 or the US simply refusing to budge, it would seem that life on the planet is set for sudden brake very soon. Apocalypse 2012 is no more laughable!

Meanwhile, the United Nations is pulling out all the stops, seeking millions of online signatures for the Seal the Deal! campaign. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon himself is calling on people around the world to add their voices to the petition demanding a fair and effective climate change agreement.

As governments quibble, citizens of the planet can come together!

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