Look, who's knocking

It is worser than we have been told. Twenty-six climatologists—including 14 IPCC members—have released a startling update to the panel’s work, reporting that sea levels could rise and methane-laden arctic permafrost could melt much sooner than the panel had anticipated.

The new diagnosis finds that arctic sea ice is melting 40 percent faster than the panel estimated just a few years ago. Satellites have found that the global average for rising sea levels was 3.4 millimeters per year from 1993-2008. The IPCC estimated it would be 1.9 mm for that period—short by 80 percent.

Iif global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2°C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly.
Worryingly, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990.

Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030.

Several vulnerable elements in the climate system could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century.

Now what? Can we expect some agreement at Copenhagen? Or simply a few more ‘nice, politically worded intentions’?