Sunday, June 13, 2010

Mind-boggling numbers


The Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been the focus around the world, and many have wondered what the impact on the price of oil and the amount of oil we have left will be. Most of the experts have concluded that, given the limited data available and the small amount of time to process that data, the best estimate for the average flow rate for the oil leakage is between 25,000 to 30,000 barrels per day, but could be as low as 20,000 barrels per day or as high as 40,000 barrels per day.

Assuming 20,000 barrels per day, the total leak in 52 days would be 1,040,000 barrels, or 43,680,000 gallons. Assuming 40,000 barrels per day, the total leak in 52days would be 2,080,000 barrels, or 87,360,000 gallons.

A calculation by University of Delaware Prof. James J. Corbett shows that all the oil lost could have powered, as of Wednesday June 9, a total of 38,000 cars, 3,400 trucks and 1,800 ships for a full year.

The oil spill could worsen and expand the oxygen-starved region of the Gulf labeled "the dead zone" for its inhospitability to marine life, suggests Michigan State University professor Nathaniel Ostrom. It could already be feeding microbes that thrive around natural undersea oil seeps, he says, tiny critters that break down the oil but also consume precious oxygen. (Pic shows the oil spill nearing the Mississippi delta, taken from a Nasa satellite)

The dead zone is believed to stem from urban runoff and nitrogen-based fertilizers from farmland swept into the Gulf by the Mississippi River. Higher springtime flows carry a heavier surge each year, nourishing algae blooms that soon die and sink. Those decay and are eaten by bacteria that consume more oxygen, driving out marine life and killing that which can't move, such as coral. The dead zone can grow to the size of a small state.

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