Big vs Strong

The Chinese government has ordered the closure of 2,087 aging steel and cement mills and other factories in an aggressive push to improve the country’s energy efficiency. The closings — which target “backward” facilities that produce steel, coke, paper, and other products — are part of a drive to reduce energy consumption per unit of economic output by 20 percent this year compared to 2005.

Chinese leaders have become increasingly concerned about reliance on imported oil and gas and growing air and water pollution. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the factory closings are intended to “realize a transformation of industry from being big to being strong.”

Whether that is also a recognition of the mistake behind Three Gorges dam cannot be decided! The dam, which is an engineering marvel, has been in the midst of problems and controversies since it was completed in 2009. Thousands of tons of garbage washed down by recent torrential rain has been threatening to jam the locks of the Dam. More than 3,000 tons of trash was being collected at the dam every day, but there was still not enough manpower to clean it all up. The trash is around two feet deep, and in some parts so compacted people can walk on it.

The Three Gorges Dam is the world's largest hydropower project, and was built partly to tame flooding along the Yangtze, which killed over 4,000 people in 1998 and countless more over the centuries. Enormously expensive and disruptive, the dam has cost over 254 billion yuan ($37.5 billion) and forced the relocation of 1.3 million people to make way for the reservoir. Towns, fields and historical and archaeological sites have been submerged.

Coupling the dam's 32 main generators with 2 smaller generators (50 MW each) to power the plant itself, the total electric generating capacity of the dam will eventually reach 22.5 GW. From completion through September 2009 the dam has generated 348.4 TWh of electricity, covering more than one third of its cost. Not only the power considerations make it attractive, but at full power, Three Gorges reduces coal consumption by 31 million tonnes per year, avoiding 100 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.

Is Big the way to be, or Strong? Is it better to go for massive projects that in one go deliver big chunks of power and carbon benefits, or opt for many, small projects that do not affect the environment or people?