Tuesday, January 11, 2011

No infinite growth possible

A study that relates global energy use to economic growth, published in the January issue of BioScience, finds strong correlations between these two measures both among countries and within countries over time. They conclude that an "enormous" increase in energy supply will be required to meet the demands of projected world population growth and lift the developing world out of poverty without jeopardizing standards of living in most developed countries.

To support the expected world population in 2050 in the current US lifestyle would require 16 times the current global energy use, for example. Noting that 85 percent of humankind's energy now comes from fossil fuels, the BioScience authors point out that efforts to develop alternative energy sources face economic problems of diminishing returns, and reject the view of many economists that technological innovation can circumvent resource shortages.

The team found the same sort of relationship between energy consumption per person and gross domestic product per person as is found between metabolism and body weight in animals. Cities and countries, like animals, have metabolisms that must burn fuel to sustain themselves and grow. This shows that the linkage between energy use and economic activity is causal, although other factors must also be in play to explain the variability in the data, the authors conclude.

Finally, it all boils down to use less of everything, and waste even lesser!

No comments: