Some ground realities, some predictions

There are predictions and predictions. So also optimism in bundles. But does that alone work?

Like all energy needs to be met by solar in two decades! That is what Ray Kurzweil says and he has been good with his predictions so far - he laid out the law of accelerating returns, which states that technology improves at exponential rates, and made a string of dead-on predictions about computing in the 80s.

'If you buy an iPhone today, it's twice as good as two years ago for half the cost. That is happening with solar energy -- it is doubling every two years. And it didn't start two years ago, it started 20 years ago. Every two years, we have twice as much solar energy in the world. Today, solar is still more expensive than fossil fuels, and in most situations it still needs subsidies or special circumstances, but the costs are coming down rapidly ... we are only a few years away from parity.'

'So right now it's at half a percent of the world's energy. People tend to dismiss technologies when they are half a percent of the solution. But doubling every two years means it's only eight more doublings before it meets a 100 percent of the world's energy needs. So that's 16 years. We will increase our use of electricity during that period, so add another couple of doublings: In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been underway for 20 years.'

He is right but there are many ifs involved in this task. For one, imagine the massive task of deploying enough solar farms fast enough to render coal and natural gas plants obsolete? Next, where is the political will to take on the powerful fossil fuel lobbies? Finally, we must remember that clean energy tech breakthroughs have not been as forthcoming as those in IT sector.

Yes, we could, if only some powerful lobbies would!!