Will we make the change?

We reported on this blog recently the latest IPCC report ‘Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN)’( http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de )which has projected that the renewable energy could account for almost 80% of the world's energy supply within four decades. Now let us look at what we can do given the existing policies.

The report did stress that the projection would hold only if government pursued favourable policies. The report has said that if the full range of renewable technologies were deployed, the world could keep greenhouse gas concentrations to less than 450 parts per million, the level scientists have predicted will be the limit of safety beyond which climate change becomes catastrophic and irreversible. And all that at a mere 1 percent of GDP cost.

The report gives overwhelming scientific evidence that renewable energy can also meet the growing demand of developing countries, where over 2 billion people lack access to basic energy services and can do so at a more cost-competitive and faster rate than conventional energy sources.

Now consider in this context the present Indian government's intention to increase the nuclear power capacity from 4,800 MW to 275,000 MW by 2050; the projection by Integrated Energy Policy that coal power capacity should increase from 80,000 MW to 400,000 MW and the hydel capacity to grow from 37,000 Mw to 150,000 MW by 2031-32. (China has just accepted that its huge hydel project The Three Gorges Dam has led to a slew of problems which must be addressed fast.)

We do not seem inclined to make the big change.

But this is the time for the country to seize the opportunity to go clean. With a 40 percent still lacking access to electricity, and even a section of the rest not yet relying heavily on commercial energy sources, there are fewer chances of upheaval than a developed nation heavily reliant on the same.

Decentralised energy shows the way. Take for example, solar. An expert estimate assumes about 30 crore house holds in the country by 2031-32 (@ 4 persons per house), and assuming that about 7.5 crore houses (25% of the total) in the country will be suitable and economically able to install roof-top solar photovoltaic systems of 2 kW each, about 150,000 MW installed capacity of solar power in distributed mode is feasible at low additional cost to the society.

The Wadebridge Renewable Energy Network (WREN) in the UK plans to generate 30% of the town's electricity from solar by 2015. WREN is starting installations with 100 homes, half of which will be buying the systems themselves, and half of which will be funded through a partnership between solar provider Solarcentury and Triodos Bank.

Finally, one simply cannot forget the role energy conservation has to play. A recent Oak Ridge University study says that over a half of electricity generated in the US is wasted, and that without including heat losses!

Will the powers that be take the step towards making the IPCC prediction come true?