The energy war

Will it be an energy war we see next, or a water war? Any guesses?

A professor and author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy, Michael Klare predicts an energy war lasting 30 years. He sees it as a succeed-or-perish contest among the major forms of energy, the corporations which supply them, and the countries that run on them. The question will be: Which will dominate the world's energy supply in the second half of the 21st century?

Why 30 years?? Because he believes that's how long it will take for experimental energy systems like hydrogen power, cellulosic ethanol, wave power, algae fuel, and advanced nuclear reactors to make it from the laboratory to full-scale industrial development.

This will be a war because the future profitability, or even survival, of many of the world's most powerful and wealthy corporations will be at risk and because the acquisition of adequate supplies of energy is as basic a matter of national security as can be imagined, struggles over oil and natural gas, will trigger armed violence.

The existing energy portfolio will just not suffice as demands increase. Meeting the 40 percent increase required given the demand from new and old quarters will only trigger the energy war.

According to BP, the world consumed 13.2 billion tons of oil-equivalent from all sources in 2010: 33.6 percent from oil, 29.6 percent from coal, 23.8 percent from natural gas, 6.5 percent from hydroelectricity, 5.2 percent from nuclear energy, and a mere 1.3 percent from all renewable forms of energy. Together, fossil fuels -- oil, coal, and gas -- supplied 10.4 billion tons, or 87 percent of the total.

Whether natural gas can be the transition fuel or more, whether renewables will go up beyond 4-5 percent globally, many things will decide how the 'war' will turn out. Whether we can appease our fuel thirst, or tweak technology further more, whether we can turn to local, distributed generation, all these will decide the winners and losers.