IEA warns of irreversible change

If fossil fuel infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will 'lose forever' the chance to avoid dangerous climate change. We must start aggressively deploying clean energy now through myriad policies, including a price on carbon. Waiting for breakthrough technologies are urging us on a path that is unsustainable, irreversible, potentially catastrophic, and economically indefensible, according to the IEA.

For every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions

"As each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the 'lock-in' of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals," said Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist.

The WEO presents a 450 Scenario, which traces an energy path consistent with meeting the globally agreed goal of limiting the temperature rise to 2 degrees C. Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions permitted to 2035 in the 450 Scenario are already locked in by existing capital stock, including power stations, buildings and factories. Without further action by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place would generate all the CO2 emissions allowed in the 450 Scenario up to 2035.

The IEA has created an intermediate scenario between 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and 6 degrees C (10.8 degrees F) warming -- "the WEO's central New Policies Scenario, which assumes that recent government commitments are implemented in a cautious manner": In the New Policies Scenario, world primary demand for energy increases by one-third between 2010 and 2035 and energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 20 percent, following a trajectory consistent with a long-term rise in the average global temperature in excess of 3.5 degrees C [6.3 degrees F]. A lower rate of global economic growth in the short term would make only a marginal difference to longer-term energy and climate trends.