Thursday, May 24, 2012

Up, up and up!

The International Energy Agency has released some preliminary data on global greenhouse gas emissions for 2011 and the news isn't good. IEA says emissions rose 3.2% last year, with a 9.3% increase in China offsetting declines in the US and EU. The latter saw a 1.7 percent decline in emissions largely due to a sluggish economy and a shift from coal to gas, both driven more out of economy considerations than climate!

According to preliminary estimates, worldwide carbon emissions climbed to 31.6 gigatonnes in 2011, a 3.2-percent increase from 2010. India’s emissions rose by 8.7 percent, passing Russia to become the world’s fourth-biggest emitter (behind China, the U.S., and the European Union).

“The new data provide further evidence that the door to a two degrees Celsius trajectory is about to close,” said Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist, citing concerns among scientists that emissions must begin being significantly reduced by 2020 to prevent potentially destabilizing temperature increases of more than 2 degrees C. According to the report, the burning of coal accounted for 45 percent of total energy-related carbon emissions, followed by oil (35 percent) and natural gas (20 percent).

Curent commitments will see emissions rise from 31.6 gigatons today to 53 gigatons by 2020, 9 gigatons higher than is needed to control temperature rise. Our current level of greenhouse gas emissions increase means that temperature rise of at least 3.5°C are likely.

More extreme weather, droughts and floods, and hence, a slump in food production and global unrest. Not good for the economy, right?

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