An increase of 1.5 billion in population, which will see increased competition for resources, a shift in power from west to east and a rising China are some of the main projections of Global Trends 2025, a report from the US National Intelligence Council. China will be a leading military power, largest importer of natural resources and biggest polluter.
Amidst its obsessive worries of conflict in the Middle East spurred by a nuclear arms race in the region, the report offers a positive hope that economic growth will become ‘rooted and sustained’.
In 2025, the world will be in the midst of a fundamental energy transition—in terms of both fuel types and sources. The number and geographic distribution of oil producers will decrease concurrent with another energy transition: the move to cleaner fuels. The prized fuel in the shorter term likely will be natural gas. By 2025, consumption of natural gas is expected to grow by about 60 percent, according to DoE/Energy Information Agency projections.
India will ‘scramble to ensure access to energy by making overtures to Burma, Iran, and Central Asia. Pipelines to India transiting restive regions may connect New Delhi to local instabilities.’
Beijing will want to offset its growing reliance on Riyadh by strengthening ties to other producers. Iran will see this as an opportunity to solidify China’s support for Tehran, which probably would strain Beijing’s ties to Riyadh. Tehran may also be able to forge even closer ties with Russia.
These as the report says are not determinative but based on trends and hence can be proven wrong if policies change substantially. Nothing like self-reliance in the long run!
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