The Indian nuclear market is estimated to be about $100 billion with a rough generation capacity of 40,000 MW expected to come up by 2020. Going further, the government expects to increase the share of nuclear from the present 3 percent of the total installed capacity to 25 percent by 2050.
Big gameplan. Even as private players wait for the Atomic Energy Act to be revised to allow independent private players, there are many challenges too. The low capacities of existing nuclear power plants, the timescale of getting a plant operational, the costs, lack of technical skills, are serious problems. Then there is the big issue of fuel costs and waste disposal.
While the state-owned NPCIL plans to increase capacity from 4120 MW to 20,000 MW in five years, it plans to import ten light water reactors that can generate 1000 MW each and costing a total Rs 800 billion. Add to that the requirements of over 400 tonnes of uranium fuel annually for its reactors, and it becomes clear that this is no cakewalk.
The costs and timescales involved have been brought out in an article by Lester Brown of Earth Policy Institute. He speaks of ‘Over the last few years the nuclear industry has used concerns about climate change to argue for a nuclear revival. Although industry representatives may have convinced some political leaders that this is a good idea, there is little evidence of private capital investing in nuclear plants in competitive electricity markets. The reason is simple: nuclear power is uneconomical.’
The costs are not only for setting up plants but as much for decommissioning them after their lifetime, he explains.
China too is going nuclear in a big way, paving the way for more nuclear reactors. Should India lag behind?
But even if the arguments are proved wrong, do we have enough fuel to go nuclear in a big way?
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