Here and Now

In its report Pathway to a Low Carbon Economy, McKinsey&Company has emphasized the urgency to act now and to act collectively. While there is immense potential to avert the 2 deg rise in temperature, it also cautions that ‘not only will all regions and sectors have to realise the full potential for abatement, it will not do to have deep emission cuts in a few alone.’

Total worldwide cost annually will be 200-350 billion euros. High, but ‘within long term capacity of financial banks’ and made good by energy savings down the years.

The analysis finds that ‘there is potential to reduce GHG emissions in 2030 by 35 percent compared with 1990 levels, or by 70 percent compared with the levels we would see in 2030 if the world collectively made little attempt to curb current and future emissions. This would be sufficient to have a good chance of holding global warming below the 2 degrees Celsius threshold, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.’

While the report also mentions a high cost technical path as well as one borne out of a behavioural change, the focus is on technical abatement costing a lesser 60 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide. These will not cause a material effect on lifestyles (which it acknowledges as tough to expect. Another topic for the blog another day!)

By capturing all the abatements across all sectors starting 2010, the emissions in 2030 will be 35-40 percent lower than in the reference year 1990. These will be the emissions one can expect if peaking happens around 480 ppm. Good enough.

But as the study notes, this will call for change on a huge scale. Like avoiding till 2030 deforestation of around 170 m hectares as also new forests on 330 m hectares! Like ensuring low carbon power generation should rise to 70 percent of global electricity. Tough, but feasible with ‘concerted global action’.

Action must be timely. A 10 year period will not equip against the 2 deg rise warned by IPCC. By delaying action even by a year, an abatement of 1.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent is lost.

Four categories for abatement opportunities are highlighted: efficiency, low carbon energy supply, terrestrial carbon and behavioural change. But the last is only qualitatively analysed and not quantitatively.

Regarding forestation, as more than 90 percent of the potential is in developing nations with insatiable thirst for industrialization, it becomes a challenge. This is why it advocates linking the abatement to the development agenda. Similarly, to push efficiency it calls for technical norms and standards; long term incentives to push renewable energy; and support for emerging technologies.

Do you believe global collective action will be forthcoming? Will the change happen? If so, when? Most of us resist change, and when it brings along tough choices, the tendency is to put it off that much more. How do we get our governments to change their ways of thinking?

Come on, let us have your thoughts.