Population, oil production nexus

Food production is increasing but food per person is not. Oil production is increasing but oil per person is not. The population figures in a big way when one looks at the big picture.

Overpopulation and oil depletion are two gigantic forces that will define the course of the human civilization, according to an expert.

Try this one for understanding the close relation between population and oil production as one of cause and effect. While human population was always matched to the planet’s carrying capacity, the age of oil tilted the balance. Before the year 2050 there will be about 3 billion deaths above normal, with a grand total of about 4 billion by the end of the century.

The skyrocketing of population is caused by the skyrocketing of oil production, he argues. Abundant oil means a large population. And the opposite too!

But as carrying capacity of the planet does not increase, as population rises, the strain on the environment too rises. Hence, a job that required only 1 barrel per person in 1940 required 4 barrels per person in 1990.

The problem of oil depletion then turns out to be ‘a sudden catastrophe’.

Interestingly, he brings in the results of urbanization with ‘forgotten pockets of habitable land abandoned as urbanites regarded rural life as too difficult, and traded their peasant smocks for factory overalls.’

There are still areas of the planet’s surface that are sparsely occupied although they are habitable or could be made so. ‘Over the next few years, human ingenuity must be devoted to refining our understanding of these geographic and demographic matters, so that at least a few can escape the tribulation’.

A lesson for India there?

Can our cities handle any more? Should we impose barriers to this growth or deploy funds in the rural scenario?

Now look at some of these statistics:
v America represents 5% of the world’s population and consumes 24% of the world’s oil.
v Middle East oil use is growing more rapidly than China’s.
v China now uses 8 million barrels per day versus 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997.
v China now consumes 2 barrels per person versus 24 barrels per person in the U.S.
v The U.S. has 220 million automobiles for 305 million people. China has 32 million cars for 1.3 billion people.
v Peak supply of 86 million barrels of oil per day has been reached. Demand will grow to 115 million to 125 million barrels per day in the next 20 years.

Finally, supply has topped out at 86 million barrels per day. Mature oil fields throughout the world are in decline. Projects can take decades to bring on-line.

How ready are we to face tomorrow? What will we do with all our automobiles when there is no oil? Yes perhaps there will be other fuels but do you see the same bodies being used? Or will there be mountains of waste?