Food will get scarce

Up to 25% of world food production could be lost to “environmental breakdowns” by 2050 unless action is taken. Cereal yields worldwide have stagnated, while one-third of these are used as feed for livestock. This figure is expected to rise to 50% by 2050, with environmental degradation and poverty rates increasing.

If you think the Rs 38 per kilo of rice is exorbitant, be ready for more. The 100 year long trend of falling food prices is likely over, with food price rises of 30-50% likely within next few decades. Those living in extreme poverty may end up spending 90% of their income on food.

The report, entitled 'The Environmental Food crises: Environment's role in averting future food crises', has been compiled by a wide group of experts from both within and outside UNEP.

Climate change emerges as one of the key factors that may undermine the chances of feeding over nine billion people by 2050. Increasing water scarcities and a rise and spread of invasive pests such as insects, diseases and weeds - may substantially depress yields in the future.

The melting and disappearing glaciers of the mighty Himalayas, linked to climate change, supply water for irrigation for near half of Asia's cereal production or a quarter of the world production.
Globally, water scarcity may reduce crop yields by up to 12 per cent.

Not to despair, the remedy is as simple as changing the ways in which food is produced, handled and disposed of across the globe- from farm to store and from fridge to landfill. When modified sustainably, this can both feed the world's rising population and help the environmental services that are the foundation of agricultural productivity in the first place, says the report.

A recent report by UNEP and the UN Conference on Trade and Development surveyed 114 small-scale farms in 24 African countries. Yields had more than doubled where organic, or near-organic practices had been used, with the in yield jumping to 128 per cent in east Africa.

The study found that organic practices outperformed traditional methods and chemical-intensive conventional farming and also found strong environmental benefits such as improved soil fertility, better retention of water and resistance to drought.