An interesting debate on a website brings to attention the old conspiracy theories! This one is on Peak Oil. Ask people in the energy arena and chances are that 50 percent will blink. They haven’t heard the term!
Why? How can such a serious issue not be heard of? Those of us who know about Hubbert’s bell curve know the world could soon run out of oil, as sson as 2020. After all, fossils are limited, so how can fossil fuel be unlimited?
The author examines if governments the world over are ignorant or hiding the issue from the public. Or worse, as some believe, the world can get along without natural resources!! An unbreakable faith in technology and the market mechanism's capacity to provide substitutes for declining fossil fuel energy services does seem to be the answer. Many officials seem to believe that all the world need is more investment which will translate to more oil production.
Or, is it simply that the human race exhibits certain cognitive biases that prevent us from acting on complex or frightening subjects outside of our day to day realities, including death. Simply by refusing to accept a painful truth, we choose to dismiss it? Sadad al-Husseini (former VP of Saudi Aramco) feels that those “who are not expressing a concern [publicly]... are doing that with a good intention: they feel like somehow this is a reality that the public at large can't handle... ”
Or do we really believe in an abundant future? As Albert Bartlett (1994) noted: There will always be popular and persuasive technological optimists who believe that population increases are good, and who believe that the human mind has unlimited capacity to find technological solutions to all problems of crowding, environmental destruction, and resource shortages.
Should governments aware of the problem speak out, or quietly plan for the future? Do you believe technology will do the rescue act, forever?
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3 comments:
1.Obviously, the governments must speak out. But will they? They are wise only at clinging to power. Hence you can forget the governments to do anything.
2. It is for the scientists, professors and the like to talk about it to the public and create a mass opinion.
3. What can technology do? It can only take out energy embedded in a raw material to usable energy. Where is such raw material? Sun is the only answer.
Gopal... point well said
1) Regarding Government speaking out, do we really need them to speak out? We have access to plethora of information available in this regard.. cant we make our own judgement ... Moreover if Government speaks out then they will be under fire. Think Mr. Obama addressing to the nation "We have run out of Oil" , panic,panic, panic .... Humans, call yourself intelligent race; be it and act ...
2) Technology well ... I think we depend quite a lot nowadays on it... Coal to liquid (CTL) fuel was once said to overcome the issue of drying oil wells but not it is not a commercially viable alternative....
I feel lot of technology have been developed to adress to the energy crisis ... but just because they are not commercially viable now we are not seeing a mass implementation ... may be when crude oil dries up people will be ready to pay more for CTL fuel ... THEN IT WILL BE COMMERCIALLY VIABLE .... But as Gopal said where are the raw materails ... Oh!! they are also scarce , including the Sun (Heard somewhere our Sun is dying)
I agree, Gopal. Technology can pitch in, but not always. There is a danger in believing technology will save us anyways so let us go ahead and plunder the resources.
People do not like to think of scarcity, petrol or water! We seem to be a planet of carpe diem believers, with no care for tomorrow or tomorrow's generation.
As to the Sun, Samanwit, we have billions of years before it expands into a red giant and swallows the solar system. We don't need to think that far ahead, I guess. Just a few hundred years is good enough:)
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