Can we save the forests?

Thomas Lovejoy, biodiversity chair of the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, and biodiversity advisor to the World Bank, says the Amazon is "very close to a tipping point." By 2075 the forest could shrink to 65% of its original size.

The tipping point for the Amazon is 20% deforestation, and we are currently at 17-18% deforestation. Main factors in the decline include climate change, deforestation and fire. Just what the IPCC 4th assessment report said.

If fears of climate change are not enough for nations to save their forests, then perhaps making it a business prospect may help. A mechanism to protect forests by steering millions of dollars from the developed world to poor countries, known as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), was endorsed by governments in Copenhagen.

Protecting forests is a cheaper and quicker way to curb emissions than by switching from coal or natural gas to low-carbon energy sources like nuclear, wind or solar power. All you need to do is pay up some money to some third world country for conserving some forest and your mark sheet places you on top for reducing emissions!

But well, though controversial, offsets can help protect forests. Scientists estimate that nearly 20% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from deforestation, as trees are slashed and burned to make way for agriculture. Standing forests also act as carbon sinks by absorbing CO2.

Neither afforestation (planting trees) nor avoided deforestation (stopping trees from getting cut down) were part of the Kyoto climate agreement, largely because of opposition that felt forest protection could not be reliably monitored and verified and that offsets would allow polluters to avoid mending their ways.

“Additionality” (how do you know the forests would not have been saved anyway?) is another factor.

But things have changed with the support of Nobel Peace prize winner Wangari Matthai, the founder of the Green Belt Movement, which planted trees across Africa, as also the WWF. How does one regulate forestry projects to insure that they are real, verifiable and long-lasting? For one, by involving poor communities to protect and monitor forests.

Like most ideas, this one too two sides to it. But perhaps one needs to weigh out the advantages against the negatives. There are many big companies looking to forest offsets to establish their green credentials. The whole idea has spawned an entire industry of project developers, carbon traders, verifiers and regulators in the US, both to create and manage offsets. Green jobs?? Right.