Emperors of the lab

From a hero to a villain it takes but a small step! Behold the IPCC and where it stands today, thanks to some laxity. The IPCC’s 2007 report had mentioned that glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Now it turns they were wrong. It will take many more years for the catastrophe.

How did a statement of such magnitude make its way to the report, with no peer review, but solely based on speculation borrowed from a magazine?

Even more alarming is that it took almost two years to discover the mistake. Does it point to the way the body of scientists works? The way info is collected, verified and analysed?

However, taking it one step further and to question credibility of global warming and the anthropogenic causes is ridiculous. But that is exactly what is happening. The skeptics and deniers are seizing this opportunity like a heaven-sent.

We need to keep some points in mind even as the IPCC is judged. That glacial melt has increased is no more a fiction than the heliocentricity of our solar system! The reduction of water is already impacting lives.

Ren, Jiawen, et al state: “Many glaciers on the South slope of the central Himalaya have been in retreat, and recently their retreat rate has accelerated … due to reduced precipitation and warmer temperatures” (Annals of Glaciology, vol. 43, no. 1, Sept 2006). Anil Kulkarni, et al’s oft-quoted study of 466 glaciers in the Baspa, Parbati and Chenab basins indicates greater fragmentation of glaciers, and reduction in glacial area by 21% since the mid-20th century (Current Science, vol. 92, no. 1, 10 Jan 2007).

Lonnie Thompson, in an interview to Nature said: “Back in 2006, we drilled three cores in the southwestern Himalayas. At 6,050 metres, where these glaciers reach their highest elevation, we found that … the glaciers are being decapitated. Not only are they retreating up the mountain slopes, but they are thinning from the top down” (Nature Reports Climate Change, 9 July 2009).

That the now-infamous speculation was based on reports gathered from natives should not make it unworthy. Guides and locals have been seeing the changes to the glaciers in their lifetime and are no less credible than drilling ice cores to check the age of glaciers!

As noted in New Scientist, perhaps it is time science came out of the closet and opened up for review by more than peers. Maybe the blogosphere can really help. ‘Some argue that the views of an untutored blogger, or even a scientist from another discipline, should never carry the same weight as those of someone with a lifetime's expertise in a relevant field. But if occasionally the emperors of the lab have no clothes, someone has to say so.’

Scientists should welcome the outside world in to check them out. Their science is useless if no one trusts it.

The other side to this is that of public interest. Whether it be climate change, or Bt Brinjal, it is time the public take some interest in science and start asking questions. Or else, we will be taken for a long ride.