Gasp!

The carbon lungs of the world stands to be cut by half by 2050! A study led by Brazil's National Institute of Special Research found that the size of the Amazon could be reduced 50 percent by 2050, the 'tipping point' for when it will slowly wither away entirely. The research found if the regions of the Amazon most crucial to maintaining the biome's climate are lost, large sections of the once lush rainforest may be reduced to a virtual desert.

According to a report from Globo Amazônia, the study conducted by Gilvan Sampaio of National Institute of Special Research (INPE) found that the vegetation of the Amazon will be particularly impacted by rising global temperatures in the years to come, in addition to the continued threats posed by deforestation and fires. But because the Amazon rainforest itself plays a crucial role in regulating the climate worldwide, the rate of vegetation loss will gradually accelerate as there's less forest to maintain it.

The study found that the cycle of forest loss will be most pronounced if the forests in eastern Amazon continue to be lost.

Once fires caused by these droughts and continued deforestation have reduced the Amazon's size by half, says Sampaio, desertification will slowly transform the terrain into a 'tropical savanna'. The report projects that this 'tipping point' level of forest loss could occur as shortly as 2050.

Although Brazil has made great strides in reducing deforestation in recent years, development and logging in restricted areas remains a problem throughout parts of the Amazon. It is in the interest of the world to keep the Amazon forests intact, but who will compensate for Brazilians seeking ‘progress’?

As to the state of climate and carbon emissions, in which large rainforests play a big role, the continuing argument on per capita versus total emissions threatens to overlook the runaway emissions rate. Energy Collective does some simple calculations to show the grim truth!

Worldwide CO2 emissions in 1990, the baseline year used for most guidelines that seek “80% reduction by 2050″ were 21.5 billion tons, and current emissions are about 30 billion tons. The 2025 target, using a linear reduction from 2010 to 2050 requires us to be at or below roughly 20 billion tons.

The per capita emissions, now: China: 4.6 tons/person, India 1.2, the US: 20, (and from a separate source) the EU: 9.0. Considering population projections for 2025: China: 1.47 billion, India: 1.35 billion, the US: 0.35 billion China’s total emissions in 2025 will be 13.2 billion tons (1.47 billion people * 9 tons/person), India’s will be 2.7 billion tons (1.35 billion * 2), and the US’ will be 3.15 billion tons (0.35 billion * 9), totalling 19.05 billion tons. Adding the rest from the EU, Japan, Africa, Canada, Mexico, Russia, et al. at more than a billion, we will have crossed the 20 bn tons target. If we lose half the Amazons in such a scenario, god forbid the extra carbon that goes up.

The high emitters have to reduce their emissions very quickly, and the developing nations have to avoid higher emissions levels. Seems inevitable if we are to ever take studies seriously as also the effects we are beginning to witness. Per capita is something which scientists are questioning, given that in a country like India, more than half do not have access to electricity!