Ecological deficit

This year's Human Development Index (HDI) came out last week and it was full of good news. The HDI started out 20 years ago to provide a way of indexing development and progress that gives a fuller picture of human well being than GDP's shallow economic calculations. This year's report celebrates the fact that over the past 40 years “average life expectancy rose from 59 to 70 years, primary school enrollment grew from 55 to 70 percent, and per capita income doubled to more than $10,000.”

The main threat, which haunts the report, is climate change. And it is the poor south that will be affected most.“The main threat to maintaining progress in human development comes from the increasingly evident unsustainability of production and consumption patterns. .... The consequences of environmentally unsustainable production are already visible. Increased exposure to drought, floods and environmental stress is a major impediment to realizing people’s aspirations. .... The continuing reliance on fossil fuels is threatening irreparable damage to our environment and to the human development of future generations.”

It notes how cities will play a significant role, being directly dependent on external supplies of food, potable water, and energy. With over 40 percent reductions in staple grain crops, conflicts will rise. Increasing energy use in cities will aggravate the situation. The US and China are prime examples of how there is no attempts at change.

Reports like the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment show that the capacity of the world's ecosystems to provide key services are in decline. Going into a century of rapid climate change with already depleted ecosystems is a frightening prospect. Can we effect a change in our urban systems to make it less dependent on ecosystems?