The average temperatures have increased by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880. By 2100, the average global temperature will rise a staggering 3.2-7.1 degrees F from what it is today.
As temperatures rise and ice melts around the world, oceans will rise about 3 feet by 2100. This would be drastic as a 3 foot rise in sea levels would displace about 600 million people, or about 10% of today's worldwide population. Highly populated areas like China, Bangladesh, India, and major cities along the east coast of the U.S. would be greatly affected.
But still, people are reluctant to change behaviour whether it be in developed or developing nations. With climate change implications acknowledged, very few are willing to take personal action or ‘sacrifice’. Why? Why is it so difficult to opt for public transport or at the very least, a hybrid, instead of a SUV? Why has it not yet become a habit to shut down the computer when not in use?
An interesting article examines the reasons behind this apathy. One reason is that while our logical reasoning accepts the enormity of the problem, the experiential side is reluctant as it does not sense the effect. As in any other clear and present danger.
Even as 33 percent of a survey of Americans showed they were concerned, they did nothing about it. Not because there is no information available about the problem but because specific solutions are often missing. An energy extension service on the lines of agricultural extensions that provide solutions could help.
That apart, what is required is to mobilize the consensus which is greater than generally believed to be. This can be done through rules and norms as these influence most people. A bigger role can be played by media in its depiction of climate change and change in personal behaviour required.
How planet-friendly is your personal behaviour? Sure, this is important when you consider the energy predictions.
World energy consumption is forecast to increase by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030, with almost two-thirds of that coming from developing countries and fossil fuels that continue to dominate energy supply, according to the Energy Information Administration's 2009 outlook report just released. That increase would mean global emissions would hit 40.4 billion tonnes by 2030, compared to 29 billion tonnes in 2006.
Developing countries are projected to increase demand by 73 percent by 2030 in the outlook's base reference case whereas developed countries will grow by 15 percent, the report says. Oil prices will return to $110 per barrel in 2015 and go up to $130 per barrel in 2030 in the base reference case, although in the high-price reference case they could reach $200 per barrel, depending on supply, EIA said.
What does it take to reverse the present trend? A hefty tax on petrol? Do away with fossil fuel based power subsidies? Save energy? Let us know your thoughts.
Friday, May 29, 2009
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