Running out of coal?

Researchers at the California Institute of Technology and the University of Washington have come to the conclusion that the world's coal supply has been vastly overestimated. The researchers believe that coal production could start dwindling as early as 2025.

The researchers have found that minable coal reserves have been overestimated by at least four times what is actually minable.

David Rutledge of the California Institute of Technology analyzed the coal production patterns of five regions around the world -- eastern Pennsylvania, France, Germany's Ruhr Valley, the United Kingdom and Japan -- each of which was producing at less than a tenth of its peak levels.

The bell curve of production obtained when applied to coal data from around the world shows that the IPCC’s estimate for extractable coal at 3400 billion tons is far above the latest calculation at 666 billion tons.

Overestimation of reserves, as also a clubbing of resources and reserves, is said to be the reason for this over-estimation.

The other consequence of this overestimation of coal is overestimation of emissions. The committee's projections call for CO2 levels in the atmosphere to approach 500 parts per million by 2050, if emissions continue on their current trend. But Rutledge's work suggest that even if humans burn all the coal and oil we can get our hands on, we won't be able to push CO2 past 450 ppm.

Will a two degree rise affect climate drastically? Some say no, while others point to climate sensitivity. But both sides agree to an impending energy scarcity from fossil fuels.

India, China and the US are relying on coal reserves to a large extent when planning growth. Will this study make any difference in the way the governments review the energy mix?