Wednesday, May 27, 2009

More Ailas to come?

More than 100 in the Asian sub-continent have lost their lives and much damage wrought by Aila. Cyclones like Aila could be the rule rather than exception if global warming continues unabated.

Intensification of storms is directly linked to ocean temperatures. Ocean warming has penetrated to a considerable depth. One of the ways that hurricanes/cyclones are weakened is the upwelling of colder, deeper water due to the hurricane’s own violent action. But when the deeper water is also warm, it doesn’t weaken the hurricane but intensifies it.

Global warming heats both the sea surface and the deep water, thus aggravating the hurricane in its journey from tropical depression to high category storms.

A 2005 study, “Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World’s Oceans,” led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography compared actual ocean temperature data from the surface down to hundreds of meters (in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans) with climate models and concluded that a warming signal has penetrated into the world’s oceans over the past 40 years.

The signal is complex, and cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing, but is well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climate models.

Tropical cyclones are more closely linked with sea surface temperatures and do not form unless the temperature goes above a certain number. Is that reason enough for nations to combat climate change?! And do it not by lukewarm guidelines but mandatory rules across all sectors. Agree?

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