Friday, May 22, 2009

The posturing begins

China has asked for the world's wealthiest nations to cut their 1990 emissions by 40 percent. And do it by 2020. In a document written by the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which handles the country's climate change policy, the NDRC document called for the same nations to give 0.5 to 1.0 percent of their annual economic worth to combat climate change.

China, which is the biggest emitter now, plans to have 35% of its power come from clean energy sources by 2020. The country’s electricity capacity would double by 2020 to about 1,600 gigawatts, and 35% of that would come from “low-emission” power sources.

China would boast about 570 gigawatts of “clean energy” by the end of the next decade, said Liu Zhenya, head of China’s state electricity network operator.

But as WallStreet Journal puts it, there is a missing 100 GW somewhere! ‘We know China plans to have 300 gigawatts of hydroelectric power by then. And we know the official targets for wind power have been raised to 100 gigawatts. Nuclear optimists in Beijing now talk about 60 gigawatts by 2020. Solar enthusiasts talk of a target between 2 and 10 gigawatts of capacity by 2020. Being generous, that’s 470 gigawatts of low-emissions electricity capacity. There’s 100 gigawatts missing somewhere.’

Meanwhile, what is causing the nightmares is the 65 percent of China’s energy mix. Around 1000 GW of coal-fired electricity!

Figures may not be that important in what is now building up into a strategy game, with Copenhagen closing in. Each player is pitching his bait and threats. Who will win? Hopefully ,the planet.

The United Nations’ first draft of a new treaty to stem global warming suggests goals such as the near elimination of greenhouse-gas emissions by mid-century in developed countries including the U.S. and Japan.

China, India and other emerging economies would have to aim for a 25 percent reduction of heat-trapping gases, under a separate option that would mark the first-ever target for developing nations.

The 53-page text, posted on the Web site of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, will now be refined by 192 countries in negotiations to forge a new deal to succeed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol climate-protection treaty.

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